How Immigration Shapes Canada’s Economy: 2026 Guide for Filipino Newcomers

Canada’s immigration system is one of the most significant forces shaping the national economy — and in 2026, the relationship between immigration and economic growth is undergoing its most dramatic shift in decades. For Filipino newcomers and prospective immigrants, understanding this evolving landscape is essential for making informed decisions about your future in Canada.

Whether you are planning to apply through Express Entry, sponsoring family members, or already building your life in Canada, the economic forces tied to immigration policy directly affect your job prospects, housing costs, and long-term settlement success.

This comprehensive guide breaks down the immigration-economy relationship in 2026, what the federal government’s policy pivot means for you, and how Filipino immigrants continue to be vital contributors to Canada’s workforce and communities.

Canada’s Immigration-Economy Relationship: An Overview

Immigration has been the primary engine of Canada’s population and labour force growth for decades. In fact, immigration accounts for nearly 100% of Canada’s labour force growth, making it indispensable for sustaining economic output, funding public services, and supporting an aging population.

However, between 2022 and 2024, Canada experienced an unprecedented surge in both permanent and temporary immigration that strained housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. The result was a paradox: while aggregate GDP grew, real GDP per capita declined in five of the past six quarters and now sits approximately 2.5% below late-2019 levels. In other words, Canada’s economy got bigger, but the average Canadian did not get richer.

This disconnect between overall economic growth and individual prosperity became a central political issue, prompting the federal government to fundamentally rethink its approach to immigration levels.

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan: Canada’s Economic Pivot

In late 2025, the federal government released the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, marking a continued recalibration of immigration targets after the initial cuts announced in October 2024. The plan prioritizes economic sustainability over raw population growth.

Permanent Resident Targets

Year	PR Target	Range	Change from Previous Plan
2025	395,000	370,000 – 420,000	Down from 500,000
2026	380,000	350,000 – 420,000	Stabilized
2027	380,000	350,000 – 420,000	Stabilized
2028	380,000	350,000 – 420,000	Stabilized

Temporary Resident Targets

For the first time in Canadian history, the government set explicit targets for temporary residents:

Year	Total New Temporary Residents	Workers	Students
2026	385,000	230,000	155,000
2027	370,000	220,000	150,000
2028	370,000	220,000	150,000

This represents a 45% reduction in new temporary arrivals compared to 2025 levels of 673,650. The government’s goal is to reduce Canada’s total temporary resident population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.

The Economic Shift: More Economic Immigrants, Fewer Overall Numbers

A critical change in the 2026-2028 plan is the increasing share of economic-class immigrants, rising from 59% to 64% of all permanent admissions by 2027-2028. This means:

• Federal High Skilled (Express Entry): ~111,000 spaces annually
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): ~92,500 spaces annually
• Federal Economic Pilots: ~8,775 spaces annually
• Family Reunification: ~81,000 (21-22% of admissions), including 15,000 for parents and grandparents
• Refugees and Protected Persons: ~49,300 (13% of admissions)

Labour Market Needs and Immigration

Despite the reduction in overall immigration numbers, Canada still faces significant labour shortages across key sectors. The government’s approach has shifted from “more workers” to “the right workers” — targeting specific high-demand occupations that complement the domestic workforce.

Key Sectors Facing Labour Shortages in 2026

Sector	Shortage Details	Immigration Response
Healthcare	Quadrupling of vacancies since 2015; 30%+ of nurses nearing retirement	New Express Entry category for doctors (5,000 spaces); 14-day expedited work permits; dedicated healthcare draws
Construction & Skilled Trades	Critical shortages in electricians, plumbers, welders	Category-based Express Entry draws; PNP priority streams
Technology	Strong demand for software developers, data analysts, cybersecurity	Tech-specific Express Entry draws; Global Talent Stream
Agriculture & Food Processing	Seasonal and year-round shortages	Temporary Foreign Worker Program; Agri-Food Pilot
Education	Teacher shortages, especially in rural areas	PNP nomination pathways

Healthcare: A Special Focus for 2026

Canada’s healthcare sector faces a particularly acute crisis. By 2030, one in four Canadians will be over 65, creating enormous demand for hospitals, long-term care, and home health support. The government has responded with several targeted immigration measures:

• New Express Entry Doctor Category (2026): 5,000 federal admission spaces reserved for provinces and territories to nominate licensed doctors with job offers
• Expedited Work Permits: Nominated doctors receive 14-day work permit processing, allowing them to work while awaiting permanent residence
• Healthcare Express Entry Draws: In December 2025, 1,000 invitations were issued specifically for healthcare and social services workers (CRS cutoff: 476)
• Credential Recognition Funding: $77.1 million over four years starting in 2025-26 to help internationally educated health professionals integrate into the workforce

Housing Affordability and Immigration: The 2026 Debate

The connection between immigration and housing costs has been one of the most contentious policy debates in recent Canadian history. For the first time, the federal government explicitly linked immigration reductions to housing affordability goals.

What the Data Shows

Research indicates that immigration is a factor, but not the dominant driver of rising housing costs:

• New immigrant arrivals accounted for approximately 11% of the increase in housing prices and rents over a 15-year study period
• Other factors — including supply constraints, zoning regulations, interest rates, and speculative investment — play larger roles
• However, the pace of population growth between 2022-2024 did outstrip housing construction capacity, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver

Expected Housing Market Effects in 2026

Housing Indicator	2024	2026 Projection	Impact of Immigration Cuts
Rent Growth	6-7%	3-3.5%	Reduced demand, especially from international students
Housing Supply Gap	Significant deficit	Narrowing	CMHC estimates ~534,000 fewer units needed by 2030
Home Prices	Moderate growth	Stabilizing	Less demand pressure, but supply still constrained

Healthcare System and Immigration

Canada’s healthcare system is deeply intertwined with immigration — both as a source of critical healthcare workers and as a system under pressure from population growth.

The Challenge: Serving a Growing, Aging Population

• Healthcare vacancies have quadrupled between 2015 and 2023
• Over 30% of the current nursing workforce is nearing retirement age
• Canadian colleges are not producing healthcare graduates fast enough to meet demand, especially in rural areas and provinces like Nova Scotia, Manitoba, and British Columbia
• Wait times for family doctors and specialist care continue to increase

The Solution: Targeted Immigration

Rather than reducing healthcare immigration along with overall cuts, Canada is increasing targeted healthcare pathways. Between 2000 and 2022, 105,000 healthcare workers successfully transitioned from temporary to permanent residence in Canada. The government aims to accelerate this pattern through:

1. Dedicated Express Entry draws for healthcare workers (10,250 healthcare workers invited in 2024 alone)
2. Home Care Worker Immigration Pilots launched in March 2025
3. Provincial Nominee Program priority streams for healthcare occupations
4. $77.1 million federal investment in foreign credential recognition for health professionals

Filipino Economic Contributions to Canada

The Filipino community is one of the most economically active and impactful immigrant groups in Canada. With over 900,000 Filipino Canadians — the Philippines is the third-largest source country for immigration — the community’s contributions extend across virtually every sector of the economy.

Healthcare: The Filipino Backbone

Filipino immigrants have long been disproportionately represented in Canada’s healthcare system, filling critical gaps that would otherwise leave hospitals, long-term care facilities, and home care services severely understaffed:

Healthcare Role	Filipino Representation	Context
Internationally Trained Nurses	34.4%	More than one-third of all foreign-trained nurses in Canada are Filipino
Migrant Caregivers	87-90%	The vast majority of in-home caregivers under Canada’s caregiver programs
Nurse Aides & PSWs	30%	Nearly one-third of immigrant nurse aides, orderlies, and patient service associates
Total Healthcare Aide Workforce	5.6%	Share of Canada’s entire healthcare aide labour force

Beyond Healthcare: Diverse Economic Impact

Filipino Canadians contribute to the economy in ways that extend far beyond healthcare:

• Skilled Trades and Construction: Increasing numbers of Filipino workers in electrician, plumbing, and welding trades — sectors with acute labour shortages
• Hospitality and Food Services: A significant presence in hotels, restaurants, and food processing across Canada
• Information Technology: Growing representation in tech roles, particularly in the GTA
• Entrepreneurship: Filipino-owned businesses contribute to local economies, particularly in urban centres like Toronto, Vancouver, and Winnipeg
• Remittances: Filipino Canadians send approximately $1.21 billion USD annually to the Philippines, strengthening transnational economic ties

The Overqualification Challenge

Despite their significant contributions, Filipino immigrants face a persistent challenge: 67% of nursing graduates from the Philippines are considered overqualified for their current jobs in Canada. This means many highly skilled professionals work in roles below their qualifications due to credential recognition barriers, costing both the individuals and the Canadian economy.

The government’s $77.1 million investment in foreign credential recognition — alongside new pathways for internationally educated healthcare professionals — is a step toward addressing this gap, but significant work remains.

Key Sectors Relying on Immigrant Workers

Canada’s economy depends on immigrant labour across multiple sectors. For Filipino newcomers planning their immigration strategy, understanding where demand is highest can help you position yourself for success.

In-Demand Sectors and Occupations for 2026

Sector	Key Occupations	Immigration Pathway	Filipino Relevance
Healthcare	Nurses, PSWs, doctors, pharmacists, medical technologists	Express Entry (category draws), Caregiver Pilots, PNP	Strongest sector for Filipino workers; 34%+ of international nurses
Skilled Trades	Electricians, plumbers, welders, carpenters, millwrights	Express Entry (trades draws), PNP, LMIA-based work permits	Growing Filipino representation; high demand in Ontario
Technology	Software developers, data analysts, cybersecurity specialists	Express Entry, Global Talent Stream, PNP tech streams	Emerging sector for Filipino professionals, especially in GTA
Transportation	Truck drivers, delivery drivers, logistics coordinators	LMIA-based work permits, PNP	Significant Filipino workforce participation
Agriculture	Farm workers, food processing, agricultural technicians	Agri-Food Pilot, TFWP	Seasonal and permanent opportunities, especially in rural areas

The Economic Impact on Newcomers: Jobs, Wages, and Settlement

How do the 2026 policy changes affect Filipino newcomers already in Canada or planning to arrive? The effects are mixed — but there are reasons for cautious optimism.

Employment and Wages

Indicator	Current Trend (2025-2026)	What It Means for Newcomers
Unemployment Rate	Expected to decline from 6.8% to 6.3% by Q4 2026	Improving job market; less competition from temporary workers
Wage Growth	Tightening labour market expected to increase wages	Better earning potential, especially in shortage sectors
Median Entry Earnings	$42,900 (2021 cohort, rising trend)	Economic immigrants increasingly match or exceed Canadian-born wages
Per-Capita GDP	1.3% growth projected in 2026	Standard of living improvement after two years of decline

The Good News

• Less competition: With fewer temporary residents arriving, there is less competition for entry-level and mid-level positions
• Higher wages: A tighter labour market tends to push wages upward, benefiting workers in shortage sectors
• Economic immigrants earn more: Data shows that principal applicants selected through economic programs surpass their Canadian-born counterparts in earnings soon after arrival
• Rental market softening: Slower population growth is easing pressure on rental costs, with growth projected at 3-3.5% (roughly half of 2024’s rate)

The Challenges

• More competitive immigration selection: With fewer spots available, CRS scores and eligibility thresholds may remain high
• Credential recognition delays: Despite new funding, internationally educated professionals still face barriers to practising in their fields
• Gender gaps persist: Immigrant men report higher employment rates than Canadian-born men, but immigrant women report substantially lower rates than their Canadian-born peers
• Settlement service demand: Ontario is strengthening employment-related programming in settlement and language training, but waitlists can be long

The Bigger Picture: Zero Population Growth and What Comes Next

In 2026, Canada is expected to experience zero population growth for the first time since the 1950s. This is a historic shift with far-reaching economic consequences:

Economic Metric	Impact of Zero Population Growth
GDP Growth	Forecast at 1.3% in 2026 (down from 1.7% in 2025); approximately $16.2 billion less GDP than without cuts
Per-Capita GDP	Expected to grow at 1.3% — the same rate as total GDP — a significant improvement over recent declines
Labour Market	Unemployment expected to fall gradually; fewer workers needed to improve per-worker conditions
Consumer Spending	Weaker population growth may depress household spending in the short term
Rental Market	Softer rent growth, particularly in student-heavy areas

The Conference Board of Canada estimates that reduced immigration will lower GDP by $7.9 billion in 2025 and $16.2 billion in 2026, shaving approximately 0.3 percentage points of growth annually. However, the trade-off is that average income per person (real GDP per capita) is expected to rise by about 1.4% by 2027, because economic output is divided among a smaller population.

This is the core calculation behind the policy pivot: slower total growth, but better outcomes per person. Whether this strategy succeeds will depend on whether Canada can maintain productivity growth without the labour force expansion it has relied on for decades.

What This Means for Filipino Immigrants in 2026

For Filipino newcomers and prospective immigrants, the 2026 landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. Here is a practical summary of how these changes affect you:

If You Are Planning to Immigrate

1. Focus on economic pathways: With 64% of permanent admissions going to economic immigrants, Express Entry and PNP are your best routes. Strengthen your CRS score through language testing, education, and Canadian work experience.
2. Target in-demand occupations: Healthcare, skilled trades, and technology offer the strongest prospects. Category-based Express Entry draws give you an advantage if you qualify.
3. Consider provincial pathways: With ~92,500 PNP spaces annually, provinces like Ontario, BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan offer alternative routes. Each province has streams aligned with its labour market needs.
4. Healthcare professionals — act now: New immigration pathways specifically target doctors, nurses, and caregivers. The $77.1 million credential recognition investment makes this the best time to pursue healthcare careers in Canada.
5. Be prepared for higher competition: Fewer total spots mean higher standards. Invest in IELTS preparation, credential assessments (WES/ECA), and skills upgrading before applying.

If You Are Already in Canada

1. Job market is improving: Less competition from temporary workers and a tightening labour market should improve employment prospects and wages.
2. Explore credential recognition programs: If you are working below your qualifications, the new federal funding for foreign credential recognition may open doors to roles matching your expertise.
3. Housing costs are stabilizing: While the GTA remains expensive, slower rent growth provides some relief. Consider secondary markets for better affordability.
4. Transition to PR if possible: If you are on a temporary permit, prioritize your pathway to permanent residence. The government is focused on converting qualified temporary residents to PRs rather than bringing in new temporary arrivals.
5. Access settlement services: Ontario is strengthening employment-related settlement programming, including women-only language classes, childcare support, and disability services.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Canada reducing immigration because of economic problems?

Not exactly. Canada is recalibrating immigration to better align with its economic capacity. The issue was not immigration itself, but the pace of growth — particularly in temporary residents — that outstripped housing, healthcare, and infrastructure capacity. The goal is sustainable immigration that improves per-capita outcomes rather than just aggregate GDP.

Will it be harder for Filipinos to immigrate to Canada in 2026?

It depends on your pathway. Economic immigration still has 64% of all permanent resident spots, and healthcare, skilled trades, and technology workers are in high demand. If you qualify for Express Entry or a PNP stream targeting your occupation, your chances remain strong. However, overall competition may increase due to fewer total spots available.

How does reduced immigration affect the Canadian job market?

With fewer temporary workers arriving, the labour market is tightening. Unemployment is expected to decline from 6.8% to 6.3% by the end of 2026, and wages in shortage sectors are expected to rise. For newcomers already in Canada, this generally means better employment prospects and earning potential.

Will housing become more affordable for newcomers?

Housing affordability is improving marginally. Rent growth is projected at 3-3.5% in 2026 (roughly half of 2024’s rate), and the housing supply gap is narrowing. However, the GTA remains one of the most expensive housing markets in North America. Newcomers should budget carefully and explore communities outside the downtown core.

What about family sponsorship — is it affected by the economic focus?

Family reunification remains a significant part of the plan at approximately 81,000 admissions (21-22% of total), including 15,000 spaces for parents and grandparents annually. While the economic class share is increasing, family sponsorship pathways are maintained. Spousal and partner sponsorship in particular remains a reliable pathway.

Are Filipino caregivers still welcome in Canada?

Yes. The government launched new Home Care Worker Immigration Pilots in March 2025, and caregiving remains a pathway to permanent residence. Filipino caregivers continue to fill a critical role in Canada’s home care system, representing 87-90% of migrant caregivers. The new pilots may offer improved conditions and clearer pathways to PR.

How JCA Law Office Can Help

Navigating Canada’s evolving immigration landscape requires expert guidance — especially as policies shift toward more targeted, competitive selection. At JCA Law Office Professional Corporation, we specialize in helping Filipino newcomers and families achieve their Canadian immigration goals.

Our immigration services include:

• Express Entry applications — Federal Skilled Worker, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) — Ontario OINP, BC PNP, Alberta AAIP, Manitoba MPNP, and Saskatchewan SINP
• Family sponsorship — Spousal, partner, parent, and grandparent sponsorship
• Work permits and LMIA applications — Including healthcare worker and caregiver pathways
• Study permits and PGWP — For international students and post-graduation work
• Credential recognition guidance — Helping healthcare professionals and skilled workers navigate Canadian credential assessment
• Philippine services — Dual citizenship (RA 9225), NBI clearance, consular documents

As a firm rooted in the Filipino-Canadian community, we understand the unique challenges and opportunities facing Filipino immigrants. We provide services in English, Filipino, and Tagalog.

---

Last Updated: February 2026. This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration policies and economic conditions change frequently. For advice specific to your situation, please book a consultation with JCA Law Office.

Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC); Statistics Canada; Conference Board of Canada; TD Economics; RBC Economics; Oxford Economics; CMHC; OECD International Migration Outlook 2025.